Key Takeaways
- Reuters reports that Kalshi is purportedly negotiating a $1 billion raise at a $40 billion valuation, up eightfold since October.
- Reportedly, Sequoia and Wellington are discussing leading Kalshi’s latest round as institutional trading expands.
- Kalshi’s financing remains unclosed as its legal fight with state gambling regulators continues.
From $5 Billion to $40 Billion in Less Than a Year
A company that investors valued at $5 billion last October, the prediction marketplace Kalshi, is now discussing a deal that would put its worth at $40 billion. That’s the rather extraordinary trajectory of Kalshi, the exchange where people trade contracts tied to everything from sporting events and elections to economic indicators.
The latest negotiations, disclosed by Reuters reporter Anirban Sen on Sept. 29, involve raising approximately $1 billion, with a closing anticipated in the coming weeks. Here’s the interesting part: Kalshi secured another billion-dollar investment just five months ago, and its valuation has nearly doubled since then. Yet its biggest regulatory headache hasn’t gone away.
Investors Line Up for Another Billion-Dollar Round
Reuters reported that existing investor Sequoia Capital is discussing leading the financing alongside Wellington Management. The publication’s sources say Tiger Global Management and Dragoneer Investment Group are also negotiating participation. Sequoia partner Alfred Lin already occupies one of Kalshi’s five board seats. Kalshi and Tiger Global declined to comment, while the other prospective investors did not respond to requests from Reuters.
The company’s valuation history tells quite a story. In October 2025, Kalshi raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation before securing another $1 billion in December at an $11 billion valuation. By May 2026, the company had collected another $1 billion, doubling its valuation to $22 billion. Now, just four months later, the report says Kalshi is negotiating yet another billion-dollar financing round that would put its valuation at approximately $40 billion.
The proposed valuation represents a 700% increase from October’s figure, and the latest negotiations arrive before Kalshi has even completed a full year since its $5 billion benchmark. The transaction remains unconfirmed, however, and neither the final investor lineup nor the closing date has been announced.
A Prediction Market With Traditional Exchange Ambitions
Founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi operates a federally regulated marketplace where traders buy contracts that pay based on whether particular events happen. Its growth has been substantial. Company figures released in May showed annualized trading volume climbing from $52 billion to $178 billion over six months, while institutional volume increased 800%.
Kalshi is now courting hedge funds, insurers, and asset managers, developing institutional trading products while positioning itself against established exchange operators such as CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Alongside this, ICE has its own relationship with Polymarket. Kalshi rival Polymarket is reportedly negotiating its own billion-dollar financing, with earlier reporting pointing to a valuation exceeding $20 billion.
A $40 Billion Price Tag Meets a State Gambling Fight
There’s a complication behind those impressive valuations. On Sept. 25, the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled against Kalshi in litigation involving Ohio and Tennessee, allowing those states to regulate their respective sports contracts under gambling laws.
Kalshi maintains that its federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight governs the products and has challenged the ruling’s legal durability. Trump’s CFTC agrees with this stance and has met state regulators in court. The dispute creates an intriguing contradiction. Investors are discussing an eightfold valuation increase for a company whose sports contracts, a major source of trading activity, remain contested by state regulators in several jurisdictions.
Kalshi has also held preliminary discussions about going public, although Mansour previously indicated that an initial public offering (IPO) wasn’t planned for 2026. For now, the $40 billion figure is still a negotiating target. The company is seeking another billion dollars while the state courts continue debating precisely what kind of business it is.
