Ripple XRP would have to climb 321% in the 55 days left in 2026 to touch $5, after a 9% drop on Friday, November 6, took it to $1.19. That is a tall order.
$5 is 37% above XRP’s all-time high of $3.66 from July 2025, and it would value the circulating supply at about $318 billion, more than four times today’s $75.3 billion.
XRP has rallied that hard at this time of year only once. We checked every year since 2018, and only in 2024 did XRP rise more than 321% between November 6 and December 31. In the other seven years, its gain fell far short.
The hopeful sign comes from large holders. The number of private wallets holding at least 1 million XRP, not counting exchange or Ripple wallets, rose from 1,657 to 1,764 over the past month. Together, these wallets added 1.37 billion XRP even as the price fell 18%, which suggests big buyers are using the drop to build positions.
So can XRP reach $5 before 2027, and what would it take?
Ripple is beating much of the larger competition… @Ripple topped all other stablecoin issuers in the last 24 hours, issuing $34.7 million in net-new tokenized dollars in RLUSD.
This made it outperform @Tether ($24.2 million) and @m0 ($22.6 million), @SoFi ($4.6 million),… pic.twitter.com/tn5cY0GU5V
— BSCN (@BSCNews) November 6, 2026
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Has Ripple XRP Ever Rallied 321% Before the New Year?
Only once in eight years. For each year since 2018, we took XRP’s closing price on November 6 on Binance and compared it with the highest price XRP reached before December 31. That is the most a buyer on November 6 could have made by year-end.
- 2024: +437%, from $0.54 to $2.91 on December 3, the post-election run
- 2020: +202%, from $0.26 to $0.78
- 2021 and 2025: +17% each
- 2018, 2019, 2022 and 2023: 5% or less
In most years, XRP actually lost ground. In six of the eight, it ended December 31 lower than it was on November 6.
The odds look just as slim at any time of year. We checked every 55-day stretch since May 2018, starting from each day’s close. XRP rose 321% or more in only 1.8% of them, all during two rallies, in early 2021 and late 2024. In a typical 55-day stretch, its best gain was 21%.
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What Are XRP Whales, Volume and Traders Doing?
Whales are buying while the price falls. We compared the XRPScan list of today’s 10,000 largest XRP accounts with what those same accounts held on October 7, read directly from the XRP Ledger. We left out wallets XRPScan identifies as exchanges or Ripple, and the Binance hacker’s wallets, so the count covers private holders.
- Holders of 1 million+ XRP: 1,764, up 107 from 1,657, a 6.5% rise
- Holders of 10 million+ XRP: 338, up 21 from 317
- Holders of 100 million+ XRP: 24, up two
- Total held by these private wallets: 21.13 billion XRP, up 1.37 billion, about $1.6 billion at today’s price
Exchange wallets barely changed. Wallets XRPScan identifies as exchanges held 24.93 billion XRP, just 44 million less than a month ago.
Trading has thinned out. Spot trading on Binance, meaning purchases and sales of XRP itself, averaged $117 million a day over the last 30 days, less than half the $246 million of the 30 days before.
Futures traders lean bullish. On OKX, 3.97 accounts were betting on a rise for every one betting on a fall on Thursday. Open futures positions were worth $122 million, close to a month ago. Funding, the fee one side pays the other to keep positions open, stayed at the standard 0.01% every eight hours, so those bullish bets are not overheated.
Prediction markets are skeptical. On Kalshi, a contract that pays $1 if XRP tops $2 at any point in 2026 costs 15 to 18 cents, so traders see roughly a 1-in-6 chance. The same bet on $5 barely trades: buyers offer 4 cents and sellers ask 13, too wide a gap to read a clear price.
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Ripple XRP Price Analysis: What Does the Weekly Chart Say?
On the weekly chart, XRP has a long way to go. XRP trades at $1.19, below its 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $1.32 and its 50-week EMA at $1.48.
- Resistance: $1.32, the 20-week EMA, then $1.48, the 50-week EMA. Above that, $1.70, the August 22 high, and $2.42, the 2026 high from January 6.
- Support: $1.18, Friday’s low, then $0.99, the August 14 low and XRP’s lowest price of 2026.
| Path | What has to happen | Next stop |
|---|---|---|
| Push higher | A weekly close back above $1.48 | $1.70, then $2.42, the 2026 high |
| Stall | XRP holds between $0.99 and $1.32 | A range into year-end, with $5 out of reach |
| Slip | A weekly close below $1.18 | $0.99, the August low |
For Ripple XRP to reach $5 by New Year’s Eve, it would have to break through every one of those levels and then pass its $3.66 record. Big holders buying during the drop is a good sign for a recovery, but only the 2024 rally ever moved XRP that far, that fast, at this time of year.
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