On November 2, 2025, crypto analyst Ignas | DeFi distilled crypto’s present standoff right into a clear ledger of execs and cons.
The Bearish Case For Crypto
The primary bear pillar is the “AI bubble” overhang. Late-October headlines crystallized the talk as Nvidia briefly breached a $5 trillion market worth, a milestone that sharpened concern that fairness valuations tied to AI infrastructure spending could also be operating forward of realized returns.
Level two—“bullish information fail to pump”—was on show as “Uptober” ended with a whimper for the crypto market. Regardless of intermittent coverage tailwinds and robust ETF inflows mid-month, each Bitcoin and Ethereum light into month-end, and US spot ETF flows turned sharply unfavourable over the ultimate three buying and selling days of October, a sample per danger aversion after the Oct. 10–11 shock.
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That shock, the “10/10 crash,” is the third bear lever. The 2-day downdraft adopted a sudden tariff escalation menace from the White Home and produced one of many largest one-day liquidations in crypto historical past, spurring a rush for draw back hedges and leaving the market probing for “useless entities” and hidden impairments.
Cycle timing is Ignas’ fourth bear word. The fourth Bitcoin halving occurred on April 20, 2024 (block 840,000). Prior cycles don’t map one-for-one, however the post-halving window is a sample which will get a variety of consideration for the time being. If the “cycle just isn’t useless,” a Bitcoin high could already be in or is looming by the top of the yr.
“Previous OG wallets promoting” is the fifth bear claimant—and, for as soon as, the chain tells a transparent story. Since mid-October, long-term holders have materially elevated web distribution, with Glassnode and different trackers flagging outflows on the order of tens of hundreds of BTC, alongside headline-grabbing awakenings of Satoshi-era wallets. This doesn’t show panic, nevertheless it does inject provide at a fragile second.
Adverse ETF flows spherical out the bear record. Farside’s fund-by-fund ledger reveals pronounced outflows on October 29–31 throughout a number of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, with complete day by day web redemptions exceeding $470 million on October 29 and $488 million on October 30, earlier than one other hit on October 31 (191 million). Whereas October closed with a influx complete of three.424 billion, the message: the “quick cash” cohort that chased the summer season breakout was, no less than quickly, in retreat.
Buffett’s warning is the macro bear exclamation level. Berkshire Hathaway’s third-quarter print revealed a document $381.7 billion money pile and a twelfth straight quarter as a web vendor of equities—a posture that telegraphs wariness about broad danger belongings and liquidity circumstances at the same time as working earnings rise. For crypto, this isn’t a direct circulate, however it’s a bellwether for world danger urge for food.
The Bull Case For Crypto
The bull case, nevertheless, just isn’t hand-waving. Begin with “liquidity easing & curiosity cuts.” The ECB has already delivered substantial easing this yr and paused; the Financial institution of England has begun slicing; and within the US, the Federal Reserve can also be anticipated to shut out the yr with two extra cuts whereas ending quantitative tightening.
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Ignas additionally says “no clear euphoria,” and—empirically—he’s proper. The Crypto Worry & Greed Index spent the previous week toggling between “Worry” and low “Impartial,” printing within the mid-30s to low-40s as of November 3. That’s a good distance from the 80s–90s “excessive greed” that always units up blow-off tops, and it helps the concept positioning just isn’t but dangerously crowded.
Institutional adoption stays the quiet compounding drive within the bull ledger. With $30.2 billion year-to-date inflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs are fueling a lot of the market power.
On coverage, the US did greater than chatter in 2025: the Senate handed, and President Trump signed, a bipartisan stablecoin legislation in July. A broader market-structure invoice stays in play, however even the stablecoin win is non-trivial for on-chain liquidity and funds rails.
Seasonality additionally favors persistence. Since 2013, This fall has been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter on common, with a number of cycles posting outsized November–December runs.
Then there’s the stablecoin plumbing. Regardless of October’s chaos, mixture stablecoin float sits round $307–308 billion and notched recent all-time highs in mid-October—an indication that dry powder inside crypto’s personal rails stays considerable and able to mobilize if confidence stabilizes. As of right now, DefiLlama pegs the overall at roughly $307.6 billion.
Lastly, the US–China commerce warfare has seen extraordinarily optimistic progress. “That is the BIGGEST de-escalation but. Underneath the brand new US-China commerce deal, President Trump made a HUGE settlement with China: China will droop ALL retaliatory tariffs introduced since March 4th. And, China will droop or take away ALL retaliatory non-tariff countermeasures taken since March 4th. This isn’t getting practically sufficient consideration,” The Kobeissi Letter wrote through X on Sunday.
At press time, the overall crypto market cap stood at $3.56 trillion.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
