In the beginning of 2025, crypto’s greatest names issued daring forecasts: Bitcoin to $200,000, Ethereum to $7,000, a US strategic reserve, and stablecoins going mainstream.
Twelve months later, the scoreboard reveals a sample. The value targets principally crashed and burned, whereas the structural calls on regulation, ETFs, and funds infrastructure quietly got here true.
This is who nailed it, who missed the mark, and what the hole between hype and actuality says about how this market truly works.
Bitcoin $200,000, Ethereum $7,000, Solana $750
Bitwise’s December 2024 outlook opened with blockbuster numbers: Bitcoin to $200,000, Ethereum to $7,000, Solana to $750, all using ETF-driven adoption and institutional momentum.
The thesis wasn’t loopy, as spot Bitcoin ETFs had launched in January 2024, pulling in tens of billions, and the President Donald Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance prompt regulatory tailwinds would persist.
Actuality delivered a distinct script. Bitcoin peaked round $126,000 in mid-October, then bought off arduous on tariff headlines and macro headwinds, ending the 12 months close to the high-$80,000s.
Ethereum topped just below $5,000 in August and closed round $3,000. Solana traded within the low-$100s into year-end.
Though the value predictions missed the mark, the regulation and institutional adoption predictions had been on course.
Bitwise was directionally proper that 2025 could be an “up solely” 12 months for many of its period, however the level targets overshot. The agency’s actual contribution was calling for the enlargement of ETFs and coverage shifts on stablecoins.
For worth prediction functions, this belongs within the “enthusiastic however incorrect” bucket.
Cycle peak in Q1, Bitcoin to $180,000, tokenization at $50B
VanEck’s late-2024 prediction deck forecast a peak within the first quarter, with Bitcoin hitting $180,000, one other new excessive by year-end, and aggressive progress in on-chain exercise: $50 billion in tokenized securities, $200 billion in DeFi TVL, $30 billion in NFT quantity.
The timing was incorrect. Bitcoin’s peak got here in October, topping out round $126,000 and by no means revisiting that degree after the tariff shock.
The tokenization market peaked at $19.2 billion, whole worth locked in DeFi reached $170 billion after which declined, and NFT quantity was roughly $5.6 billion, all far under VanEck’s numbers.
VanEck was over-optimistic on scale however broadly proper that tokenization and DeFi would develop meaningfully. The agency will get credit score for figuring out the themes, it simply priced in two years of progress as an alternative of 1.
Bitcoin $300,000, Ethereum $8,000, whole crypto $10T
HashKey Group’s “High 10 Market Predictions for 2025” grew to become a sentiment snapshot when practically 50,000 group voters backed the boldest situation: Bitcoin breaking $300,000, Ethereum above $8,000, whole crypto market cap at $10 trillion, and USD stablecoins above $300 billion.
The one quantity that has held is the availability of USD-pegged stablecoins, which sits at $308 billion as of press time.
Bitcoin’s excessive was roughly $126,000, Ethereum’s round $4,950, and the mixture crypto market stalled far under $10 trillion.
This prediction is beneficial because the purest expression of 2025’s bullish groupthink.
Bitcoin $185,000, DOGE above $1, miners grow to be AI retailers
Galaxy put out one of many most granular 2025 prediction units: Bitcoin to $185,000, Ethereum above $5,500, Dogecoin breaking $1, plus formidable targets for DeFi and NFTs.
In addition they argued that almost all public miners would pivot into AI and high-performance computing.
Bitcoin and Ethereum undershot these worth aims by roughly 30% and 10%, respectively, and DOGE by no means cleared $1.
Nonetheless, when it comes to construction, Galaxy was a lot nearer. Miners did aggressively put money into AI and HPC capability all through 2025.
MARA Holdings, Riot Platforms, and others introduced AI compute partnerships and retrofitted amenities to seize GPU demand.
This can be a neat instance the place “who was proper” relies on whether or not you cared about tickers or enterprise fashions. Galaxy’s worth calls principally whiffed; their industry-structure name largely hit.
Bitcoin to $200,000 by year-end
In October, Customary Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick reiterated a long-running view that Bitcoin may attain $200,000 by the tip of 2025, framing Trump’s pro-crypto stance and ETF inflows as catalysts.
Bitcoin did set a brand new all-time excessive above $126,000 in early October, however then bought off arduous on tariff headlines, roughly 30% under the height and greater than 50% under the $200,000 goal.
This can be a clear miss. Customary Chartered will get factors for conviction and for being proper that Bitcoin would make new highs, however the $200,000 anchor grew to become a meme because the 12 months closed with BTC within the $80,000s.
Perma-bulls pointed to Bitcoin at $250,000
Two of 2025’s loudest particular person forecasters had been BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee. Hayes repeatedly floated eventualities during which Bitcoin would hit $200,000 to $250,000, and Ethereum would hit $10,000, leaning on Fed easing and a “doom loop” in sovereign debt.
Lee instructed a number of retailers he noticed Bitcoin at $250,000 in 2025. Identical outcome as Customary Chartered: the cycle topped out at roughly half these ranges for BTC and about half for ETH earlier than a violent liquidation episode in October reset leverage.
Hayes and Lee weren’t incorrect that Bitcoin would rally or that macro liquidity mattered. They had been incorrect in regards to the magnitude and the market’s capacity to maintain parabolic strikes with out a shock.
That is the perma-bull tax: you are at all times bullish, so that you’re at all times a bit too bullish.
US strategic Bitcoin reserve, main digital asset laws, XRP and SOL ETFs
Gemini’s Jan. 22 weblog, “5 Crypto Predictions for 2025,” argued that the US would formally set up a strategic Bitcoin reserve, pushed by Trump’s marketing campaign rhetoric and rising bipartisan curiosity in different reserve property.
In March, President Trump signed an government order directing the Treasury to construct a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” initially seeded with BTC seized in prior enforcement actions and authorizing further purchases topic to congressional appropriation.
This is without doubt one of the cleanest “nailed it” calls of the 12 months. VanEck additionally predicted a reserve, however Gemini’s 2025 model framed the politics particularly effectively.
In the identical publish, Gemini predicted Congress would transfer previous gridlock to approve complete digital asset laws, with particular emphasis on a federal stablecoin regime.
The GENIUS Act cleared each chambers and was signed in July, making a nationwide licensing and reserve framework for dollar-backed stablecoins and explicitly banning algorithmic fashions.
The broader market construction invoice remains to be being negotiated, however the stablecoin piece arrived basically as Gemini described.
Gemini additionally guess that ETFs would unfold past Bitcoin and Ethereum, particularly naming Solana and XRP as seemingly 2025 spot ETF candidates.
Spot Solana ETFs debuted within the US on October 28 by way of Bitwise’s BSOL, pulling in over $400 million within the first week. In November, US regulators green-lit the primary spot XRP ETF, following earlier XRP merchandise in Brazil and Europe.
This can be a high-impact structural name that reshaped buying and selling in each property and validated the “ETF-palooza” narrative heading into 2026.
Gemini’s three-for-three report on non-price predictions makes them the clear winner within the “structural imaginative and prescient” class.
Stablecoins, DeFi, and client crypto go mainstream
Coinbase’s 2025 Outlook prevented arduous worth targets and centered on three massive developments: a extra crypto-friendly Congress, stablecoins shifting from buying and selling rails to funds, and a DeFi revival.
Delphi Digital equally predicted that 2025 could be a “key improvement node for client DeFi,” with on-chain playing cards and tokenized US shares coming into the mainstream app stack.
The GENIUS Act and ongoing CLARITY debates produced precisely the “most crypto-friendly Congress in historical past” dynamic that Coinbase anticipated.
Stablecoins expanded their function as Mastercard, Visa, Stripe, and Shopify rolled out USDC and different cash for cross-border funds and subscriptions.
DeFi TVL climbed again to roughly $170 billion, its highest degree since late 2021, and on-chain playing cards plus tokenized-stock entry in apps like Robinhood validated the consumer-DeFi thesis virtually point-for-point.
These are the quiet winners. No viral $200,000 chart, however virtually all the things they mentioned about construction, regulation, and utilization broadly occurred.
Coinbase and Delphi get the best marks for helpful prediction, as they instructed the place the market was going, not the place the value would spike.
The decision
The scoreboard is obvious. Value predictions overshot, whereas structural predictions on regulation, ETFs, stablecoins, and infrastructure principally landed.
The corporations that centered on “what’s going to change” quite than “how excessive will it go” delivered probably the most worth. Gemini went three-for-three on non-price calls.
Coinbase and Delphi nailed the thematic arc. Bitwise, VanEck, Galaxy, Customary Chartered, Hayes, and Lee all missed badly on targets however captured items of the directional story.
The lesson for 2026: ignore the value targets, observe the construction.
The individuals who bought 2025 proper weren’t those calling $200,000 Bitcoin or Ethereum $10,000. They had been those calling for stablecoin laws, ETF enlargement, and a UX rebuild for DeFi. That is the place the precise alpha lives.
In the beginning of 2025, crypto’s greatest names issued daring forecasts: Bitcoin to $200,000, Ethereum to $7,000, a US strategic reserve, and stablecoins going mainstream.
Twelve months later, the scoreboard reveals a sample. The value targets principally crashed and burned, whereas the structural calls on regulation, ETFs, and funds infrastructure quietly got here true.
This is who nailed it, who missed the mark, and what the hole between hype and actuality says about how this market truly works.
Bitcoin $200,000, Ethereum $7,000, Solana $750
Bitwise’s December 2024 outlook opened with blockbuster numbers: Bitcoin to $200,000, Ethereum to $7,000, Solana to $750, all using ETF-driven adoption and institutional momentum.
The thesis wasn’t loopy, as spot Bitcoin ETFs had launched in January 2024, pulling in tens of billions, and the President Donald Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance prompt regulatory tailwinds would persist.
Actuality delivered a distinct script. Bitcoin peaked round $126,000 in mid-October, then bought off arduous on tariff headlines and macro headwinds, ending the 12 months close to the high-$80,000s.
Ethereum topped just below $5,000 in August and closed round $3,000. Solana traded within the low-$100s into year-end.
Though the value predictions missed the mark, the regulation and institutional adoption predictions had been on course.
Bitwise was directionally proper that 2025 could be an “up solely” 12 months for many of its period, however the level targets overshot. The agency’s actual contribution was calling for the enlargement of ETFs and coverage shifts on stablecoins.
For worth prediction functions, this belongs within the “enthusiastic however incorrect” bucket.
Cycle peak in Q1, Bitcoin to $180,000, tokenization at $50B
VanEck’s late-2024 prediction deck forecast a peak within the first quarter, with Bitcoin hitting $180,000, one other new excessive by year-end, and aggressive progress in on-chain exercise: $50 billion in tokenized securities, $200 billion in DeFi TVL, $30 billion in NFT quantity.
The timing was incorrect. Bitcoin’s peak got here in October, topping out round $126,000 and by no means revisiting that degree after the tariff shock.
The tokenization market peaked at $19.2 billion, whole worth locked in DeFi reached $170 billion after which declined, and NFT quantity was roughly $5.6 billion, all far under VanEck’s numbers.
VanEck was over-optimistic on scale however broadly proper that tokenization and DeFi would develop meaningfully. The agency will get credit score for figuring out the themes, it simply priced in two years of progress as an alternative of 1.
Bitcoin $300,000, Ethereum $8,000, whole crypto $10T
HashKey Group’s “High 10 Market Predictions for 2025” grew to become a sentiment snapshot when practically 50,000 group voters backed the boldest situation: Bitcoin breaking $300,000, Ethereum above $8,000, whole crypto market cap at $10 trillion, and USD stablecoins above $300 billion.
The one quantity that has held is the availability of USD-pegged stablecoins, which sits at $308 billion as of press time.
Bitcoin’s excessive was roughly $126,000, Ethereum’s round $4,950, and the mixture crypto market stalled far under $10 trillion.
This prediction is beneficial because the purest expression of 2025’s bullish groupthink.
Bitcoin $185,000, DOGE above $1, miners grow to be AI retailers
Galaxy put out one of many most granular 2025 prediction units: Bitcoin to $185,000, Ethereum above $5,500, Dogecoin breaking $1, plus formidable targets for DeFi and NFTs.
In addition they argued that almost all public miners would pivot into AI and high-performance computing.
Bitcoin and Ethereum undershot these worth aims by roughly 30% and 10%, respectively, and DOGE by no means cleared $1.
Nonetheless, when it comes to construction, Galaxy was a lot nearer. Miners did aggressively put money into AI and HPC capability all through 2025.
MARA Holdings, Riot Platforms, and others introduced AI compute partnerships and retrofitted amenities to seize GPU demand.
This can be a neat instance the place “who was proper” relies on whether or not you cared about tickers or enterprise fashions. Galaxy’s worth calls principally whiffed; their industry-structure name largely hit.
Bitcoin to $200,000 by year-end
In October, Customary Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick reiterated a long-running view that Bitcoin may attain $200,000 by the tip of 2025, framing Trump’s pro-crypto stance and ETF inflows as catalysts.
Bitcoin did set a brand new all-time excessive above $126,000 in early October, however then bought off arduous on tariff headlines, roughly 30% under the height and greater than 50% under the $200,000 goal.
This can be a clear miss. Customary Chartered will get factors for conviction and for being proper that Bitcoin would make new highs, however the $200,000 anchor grew to become a meme because the 12 months closed with BTC within the $80,000s.
Perma-bulls pointed to Bitcoin at $250,000
Two of 2025’s loudest particular person forecasters had been BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee. Hayes repeatedly floated eventualities during which Bitcoin would hit $200,000 to $250,000, and Ethereum would hit $10,000, leaning on Fed easing and a “doom loop” in sovereign debt.
Lee instructed a number of retailers he noticed Bitcoin at $250,000 in 2025. Identical outcome as Customary Chartered: the cycle topped out at roughly half these ranges for BTC and about half for ETH earlier than a violent liquidation episode in October reset leverage.
Hayes and Lee weren’t incorrect that Bitcoin would rally or that macro liquidity mattered. They had been incorrect in regards to the magnitude and the market’s capacity to maintain parabolic strikes with out a shock.
That is the perma-bull tax: you are at all times bullish, so that you’re at all times a bit too bullish.
US strategic Bitcoin reserve, main digital asset laws, XRP and SOL ETFs
Gemini’s Jan. 22 weblog, “5 Crypto Predictions for 2025,” argued that the US would formally set up a strategic Bitcoin reserve, pushed by Trump’s marketing campaign rhetoric and rising bipartisan curiosity in different reserve property.
In March, President Trump signed an government order directing the Treasury to construct a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” initially seeded with BTC seized in prior enforcement actions and authorizing further purchases topic to congressional appropriation.
This is without doubt one of the cleanest “nailed it” calls of the 12 months. VanEck additionally predicted a reserve, however Gemini’s 2025 model framed the politics particularly effectively.
In the identical publish, Gemini predicted Congress would transfer previous gridlock to approve complete digital asset laws, with particular emphasis on a federal stablecoin regime.
The GENIUS Act cleared each chambers and was signed in July, making a nationwide licensing and reserve framework for dollar-backed stablecoins and explicitly banning algorithmic fashions.
The broader market construction invoice remains to be being negotiated, however the stablecoin piece arrived basically as Gemini described.
Gemini additionally guess that ETFs would unfold past Bitcoin and Ethereum, particularly naming Solana and XRP as seemingly 2025 spot ETF candidates.
Spot Solana ETFs debuted within the US on October 28 by way of Bitwise’s BSOL, pulling in over $400 million within the first week. In November, US regulators green-lit the primary spot XRP ETF, following earlier XRP merchandise in Brazil and Europe.
This can be a high-impact structural name that reshaped buying and selling in each property and validated the “ETF-palooza” narrative heading into 2026.
Gemini’s three-for-three report on non-price predictions makes them the clear winner within the “structural imaginative and prescient” class.
Stablecoins, DeFi, and client crypto go mainstream
Coinbase’s 2025 Outlook prevented arduous worth targets and centered on three massive developments: a extra crypto-friendly Congress, stablecoins shifting from buying and selling rails to funds, and a DeFi revival.
Delphi Digital equally predicted that 2025 could be a “key improvement node for client DeFi,” with on-chain playing cards and tokenized US shares coming into the mainstream app stack.
The GENIUS Act and ongoing CLARITY debates produced precisely the “most crypto-friendly Congress in historical past” dynamic that Coinbase anticipated.
Stablecoins expanded their function as Mastercard, Visa, Stripe, and Shopify rolled out USDC and different cash for cross-border funds and subscriptions.
DeFi TVL climbed again to roughly $170 billion, its highest degree since late 2021, and on-chain playing cards plus tokenized-stock entry in apps like Robinhood validated the consumer-DeFi thesis virtually point-for-point.
These are the quiet winners. No viral $200,000 chart, however virtually all the things they mentioned about construction, regulation, and utilization broadly occurred.
Coinbase and Delphi get the best marks for helpful prediction, as they instructed the place the market was going, not the place the value would spike.
The decision
The scoreboard is obvious. Value predictions overshot, whereas structural predictions on regulation, ETFs, stablecoins, and infrastructure principally landed.
The corporations that centered on “what’s going to change” quite than “how excessive will it go” delivered probably the most worth. Gemini went three-for-three on non-price calls.
Coinbase and Delphi nailed the thematic arc. Bitwise, VanEck, Galaxy, Customary Chartered, Hayes, and Lee all missed badly on targets however captured items of the directional story.
The lesson for 2026: ignore the value targets, observe the construction.
The individuals who bought 2025 proper weren’t those calling $200,000 Bitcoin or Ethereum $10,000. They had been those calling for stablecoin laws, ETF enlargement, and a UX rebuild for DeFi. That is the place the precise alpha lives.
