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What a tricky 5 years it’s been for the Greggs (LSE: GRG) share value. Having hit file highs on the finish of 2021, this FTSE 250 inventory has crashed arduous since. In the meantime, the remainder of the London inventory market is scaling new peaks. So what went mistaken for Greggs and its shareholders?
Greggs does nice
Greggs the Baker was based by John Gregg in Newcastle upon Tyne in 1939. After the primary store opened in Gosforth in 1951, the bakery chain expanded quickly. Right this moment, Greggs is without doubt one of the UK’s main ‘food-to-go’ chains with over 2,600 retailers nationwide. For example, although I dwell in a tiny metropolis in Hampshire, there are three Greggs outlets in my space.
Greggs sells a variety of savoury meals (together with its well-known sausage rolls, steak bakes, and vegan sausage rolls), in addition to sandwiches and cold and warm drinks. After I’m travelling within the UK, I typically desire the quick, reasonably priced, and contemporary meals on supply at Greggs to its dearer rivals. And being from the North East myself, I’m delighted to assist this Geordie enterprise.
Greggs shares floated on the London inventory market in April 1984. Again then, the enterprise had 260 outlets and was valued at £15m. At its all-time excessive, the share value peaked at 3,443p on 31 December 2021, with the enterprise price almost £3.5bn. In 2022, new CEO Roisin Currie took over and, alas, it’s been steeply downhill ever since.
Shares droop
As I write, this inventory stands at 1,512.5p, valuing the group at simply over £1.5bn. This leaves the share value down a surprising 56.1% from its end-2021 peak. In equity, the shares went ex-dividend for 50p a share on Thursday, 30 April, which explains right now’s 2.9% value decline.
For the file, my household portfolio owns Greggs inventory, paying 1,696.7p a share for our stake final July. To this point, we’re sitting on a paper lack of 10.9%, however this excludes dividends. And as shareholders, we’ll obtain the above 50p-a-share dividend on 29 Could. As an alternative of spending this money, we’ll use it to purchase extra Greggs shares. This boosts our shareholding and likewise our future returns.
As for Greggs’ troubles, 4 points are out of its management. First, the cost-of-living disaster retains pushing up enter prices, forcing it to carry costs. Second, the rising use of GLP-1 food regimen medication are slowing its gross sales. Third, greater employer Nationwide Insurance coverage contributions are curbing income. Fourth, antagonistic climate situations had been an issue in 2025.
Restoration play?
For me, Greggs shares look undervalued and unloved right now. The inventory trades on 12.7 instances trailing earnings, delivering an earnings yield nearing 7.9%. Thus, their beneficiant dividend yield of just about 4.6% a yr is roofed 1.7 instances by historic earnings.
After all, this FTSE 250 inventory may turn into a price entice, fairly than a restoration play. However I see the percentages tilted in direction of the previous — particularly because the group’s bold retailer roll-out continues and if/when gross sales development strengthens. Therefore, I’m joyful to sit down tight and await the subsequent buying and selling replace on 12 Could!
